Obama's poll numbers

Obama's poll numbers are dropping. He's roughly even with McCain in the popular vote, and has an insignificant lead in the electoral college, right now. The negative ads the McCain campaign has launched against him are apparently working; this is somewhat reminiscent of what happened to Kerry after the Swift Boat attacks.

Resist the temptation to panic.

Obama is, in my opinion, a cannier campaigner than Kerry. My suspicion is has campaign has been holding back, keeping their powder dry. Going negative when you already have a lead is usually a bad strategy, but my guess is now you'll start to see some pushback from the Obama campaign. Also, unlike Kerry, he has plenty of time before November to stage a comeback. Finally, we're about to enter the convention season, which tends to shake everything up; we won't know where things really stand until a week or two after the conventions, when the initial convention bounce has settled down.