The pendulum swings back
posted by Liberal Seagull at 8:31 PM
Paul Krugman's column today begins, 'Remember how the 2004 election was supposed to have demonstrated, once and for all, that conservatism was the future of American politics? I do: early in 2005, some colleagues in the news media urged me, in effect, to give up. "The election settled some things," I was told.'
That statement took me back. In 2004, I believed it. I couldn't see how re-election of Bush could represent anything but the American public making a major, long-term shift to the right. He was so transparently worse than his opponent that it seemed his re-election could only mean that people felt so strongly about his ideology that they were willing to overlook his other flaws. I believed so strongly that the country was moving to the right that I started investigating emigrating to Canada.
Of course, it's clear now that, more than anything, people were frightened. Bush's campaign played off people's fears of terrorism, manipulating them into believing that only he could keep them safe. Krugman goes on to point out that Republican support is declining rapidly. It would be easy to lay this at the feet of Bush, citing his unpopularity, but polling data suggest the Republicans have a more serious problem -- people are rejecting their ideology. 43% of us now believe government should provide more services, even if it requires higher spending. A whopping 69% of us believe the government should be providing universal health care.
Some of this is simple demographics. The Baby Boomers are aging. They know they're rapidly approaching a stage in their life when they'll need more health care. David Frum wrote about this last May, suggesting with obvious regret that the Republicans had probably missed their opportunity to shrink the size of government.
All signs point to the Republican party heading for some time out in the wilderness. Important Republican figures seem oblivious to the trends above, believing that what the party needs is to return to its core, conservative ideology. But the public has seen the results of those values and has no stomach for them; they want a moderate Republican party.
I always suspected the pendulum would eventually swing back, but I thought it would take decades. I'm heartened to see it already beginning to come around with a vengeance.
That statement took me back. In 2004, I believed it. I couldn't see how re-election of Bush could represent anything but the American public making a major, long-term shift to the right. He was so transparently worse than his opponent that it seemed his re-election could only mean that people felt so strongly about his ideology that they were willing to overlook his other flaws. I believed so strongly that the country was moving to the right that I started investigating emigrating to Canada.
Of course, it's clear now that, more than anything, people were frightened. Bush's campaign played off people's fears of terrorism, manipulating them into believing that only he could keep them safe. Krugman goes on to point out that Republican support is declining rapidly. It would be easy to lay this at the feet of Bush, citing his unpopularity, but polling data suggest the Republicans have a more serious problem -- people are rejecting their ideology. 43% of us now believe government should provide more services, even if it requires higher spending. A whopping 69% of us believe the government should be providing universal health care.
Some of this is simple demographics. The Baby Boomers are aging. They know they're rapidly approaching a stage in their life when they'll need more health care. David Frum wrote about this last May, suggesting with obvious regret that the Republicans had probably missed their opportunity to shrink the size of government.
All signs point to the Republican party heading for some time out in the wilderness. Important Republican figures seem oblivious to the trends above, believing that what the party needs is to return to its core, conservative ideology. But the public has seen the results of those values and has no stomach for them; they want a moderate Republican party.
I always suspected the pendulum would eventually swing back, but I thought it would take decades. I'm heartened to see it already beginning to come around with a vengeance.
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