Economists Just “Proved” UBI Can’t Stop AI Layoffs — Here’s What They Actually Proved

Fri, 5 Jun 2026 19:02:52 +1000

Andrew Pam <xanni [at] glasswings.com.au>

Andrew Pam
<https://briefing.forwardfuture.ai/p/economists-just-proved-ubi-can-t-stop-ai-layoffs-here-s-what-they-actually-proved>

"There's a new paper making the rounds called The AI Layoff Trap, by Brett
Hemenway Falk and Gerry Tsoukalas, and it arrives with a headline that's catnip
for anyone looking to wave off basic income. Among the policies that can't
fix the problem of AI-driven layoffs, they list universal basic income. Right
there in the abstract, sitting next to capital income taxes and upskilling and
worker equity. Only one tool makes the cut: a Pigouvian tax on automation.

I want to take this paper seriously, because the core idea is genuinely good.
And then I want to show you exactly where it goes wrong about UBI, because it's
the kind of error that's easy to miss. It's simply a flawed assumption."

Cheers,
       *** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net               Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/                 Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/            Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/               Manager, Serious Cybernetics

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