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https://theconversation.com/climate-change-could-expose-1-1-billion-people-to-hunger-by-2100-but-theres-good-news-too-ai-modelling-study-274478>
"More than 295 million people globally experienced hunger and starvation in
2025 because of conflict, displacement, climate change and economic disasters.
The bad news is that things are going to get a lot worse. My latest research
has found that by 2100, climate change could drive more than a billion people
into food crises. This figure represents the total number of human beings alive
today, as well as those yet to be born, who will experience at least one
episode of severe food insecurity before the end of the century.
I’m a quantitative ecologist – I study nature using data and computer models to
understand how the environment and people respond to big pressures like climate
change, pollution and land-use change.
I developed an artificial intelligence (AI) model to predict how climate change
alone could spark severe food crises. The model was calibrated using food
insecurity data from the Famine Early Warnings Systems Network. It also used
past and future temperature and precipitation data which was available for
large regions of the world. Usually, predictions also rely on detailed
socio-economic data (like incomes, prices, policies, or household behaviour),
which is not always available and which is also difficult to forecast decades
ahead.
The model found that, if the world continues to emit a high level of greenhouse
gas emissions, over 1.1 billion people globally, including more than 600
million children, will have been exposed to at least one severe food crisis by
2100.
Africa is expected to bear a heavy toll, with more than 170 million people
predicted to be exposed to food crises - the worst of which would be starvation
- in 2099 alone – a number equivalent to the current combined population of
Italy, France, and Spain.
In contrast, if the world’s industry drastically cuts carbon emissions, with
societies transitioning towards sustainability, this would more than halve the
exposure. This highlights how policy choices determine whether hundreds of
millions face crises or far fewer are affected."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
