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https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-10/housing-crisis-hypocrisy-lip-service/104915610>
"House prices never fall very much in Australia.
Even in the recessions of 1982 and 1991 they only fell 6.2 per cent, and in the
past 50 years the national median price has only fallen more than 10 per cent
once — 10.2 per cent after the APRA crackdown on lending to property investors
in 2017, which says a lot.
In total, there have been eight housing downturns since 1980 averaging 6.7 per
cent, including the current one.
Housing is the market that never crashes, it only gently subsides. No wonder
it's beloved as an investment asset.
And the current fall in prices looks like being the smallest and shortest in
living memory, even though it's caused by the one of the biggest declines in
household disposable incomes in history and comes in the midst of a national
project to make housing more affordable.
The median capital city price peaked in November and has since fallen less than
1 per cent.
There might be another month or two of modest decline, but next week the
Reserve Bank is unanimously expected to cut interest rates, and it never goes
against unanimity. There is also an undivided expectation of another cut in May
and a third in August.
CoreLogic last week reported that, largely as a result of this expectation
about interest rates, two-thirds of real estate agents expect prices to rise in
2025, and most expect a rise of greater than 5 per cent.
Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank predicts that real household disposable income in
2025 will increase by 2.4 per cent.
These are only predictions, so anything could happen, but if they come true it
will be another year of deteriorating affordability: house prices will rise at
twice the rate of disposable income, something that that has been going on for
25 years and created what we all see now as a crisis."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
