<
https://www.actuaries.digital/2024/12/17/mortality-in-first-eight-months-of-2024-2-higher-than-predicted/>
"We projected mortality for 2024 to include two waves of Covid-19, both lower
than 2023, and all other mortality to be an improvement on 2023.
In the year to August 2024, rather than lower levels of mortality than in 2023,
Covid-19 has led to about the same level of deaths as 2023 in aggregate, with
the winter wave being significantly worse than projected, lasting longer and
peaking at higher levels of deaths than predicted.
Other deaths from respiratory illnesses have also been worse than expected,
with all other mortality in line with predictions to date.
Covid-19 continues to be a significant new source of mortality in the
Australian population, with no signs that it is replacing deaths from other
causes, leading to overall deaths being 2%, or more than 2,000 deaths higher
than expected in the eight months to August 2024."
[...]
"COVID-19 mortality in 2024 has followed the basic pattern that we predicted,
albeit with slightly different timing. The wave that hit in late 2023 abated
early in the year, and a new wave arrived in the middle of the year before it
too abated. However, deaths from COVID-19 have been much higher than
predicted.
Between the late-2023 and mid-2024 waves, COVID-19 mortality continued at a
higher level than we anticipated. The mid-2024 wave, which commenced in May,
rose more sharply and reached a higher level than we predicted. The peak of
that wave was higher than the previous one, contrary to our prediction that
peaks will be lower from wave to wave. In fact, the mid-2024 wave was similar
in height to the mid-2023 wave.
Surveillance of COVID-19 PCR tests in New South Wales and Victoria shows an
increase in positive results commencing in late October, consistent with the
timing of the predicted late-2024 wave.
COVID-19 is a new disease, and its mortality impact is difficult to predict.
The first eight months of 2024 have proven to be materially worse than we
anticipated, in terms of both the peak mortality of each wave and the
underlying mortality between waves."
Via Violet Blue’s
Pandemic Roundup: December 19, 2024
https://www.patreon.com/posts/pandemic-roundup-118259316
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
