<
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(24)00286-9/fulltext>
"
Background
The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the beneficial impact of vaccines. It
also highlighted the need for future investments to expedite an equitable
vaccine distribution. The 100 Days Mission aims to develop and make available a
new vaccine against a future pathogen with pandemic potential within 100 days
of that pathogen threat being recognised. We assessed the value of this mission
by estimating the impact that it could have had on the COVID-19 pandemic.
Methods
Using a previously published model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics fitted
to excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic, we projected scenarios for
three different investment strategies: rapid development and manufacture of a
vaccine, increasing manufacturing capacity to eliminate supply constraints, and
strengthening health systems to enable faster vaccine roll-outs and global
equity. Each scenario was compared against the observed COVID-19 pandemic to
estimate the public health and health-economic impacts of each scenario.
Findings
If countries implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) as they did
historically, the 100 Days Mission could have averted an estimated 8·33 million
deaths (95% credible interval [CrI] 7·70–8·68) globally, mostly in lower-middle
income countries. This corresponds to a monetary saving of US$14·35 trillion
(95% CrI 12·96–17·87) based on the value of statistical life-years saved.
Investment in manufacturing and health systems further increases deaths averted
to 11·01 million (95% CrI 10·60–11·49). Under an alternative scenario whereby
NPIs are lifted earlier on the basis of vaccine coverage, the 100 Days Mission
alone could have reduced restrictions by 12 600 days (95% CrI 12 300–13 100)
globally while still averting 5·76 million deaths (95% CrI 4·91–6·81)."
Via Violet Blue’s
Pandemic Roundup: October 24, 2024
https://www.patreon.com/posts/pandemic-roundup-114604843
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
