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https://theconversation.com/oil-prices-will-whipsaw-as-we-move-to-net-zero-which-could-be-disastrous-for-low-income-producer-countries-236889>
"One huge question for the future of the global economy is how oil will be
affected by the transition to net zero. Any energy economist will tell you that
predicting oil prices is something of a fool’s errand, given all the
uncertainties involved – but it would be even more foolish not to think about
them when they are so fundamental to everything we do.
First, a caveat. It hasn’t been the easiest few months in the battle to achieve
net zero. Numerous multinational companies and governments have been rowing
back on their commitments, under pressure from shareholders and voters to avoid
spending money to solve problems that can still seem far into the future.
From my perspective, this can be incredibly frustrating, since anyone who has
studied the numbers understands that net zero is the only sensible way
forward. Yes, the International Energy Agency reckons that we need to invest
an additional US$4.5 trillion (£3.5 trillion) a year in clean energy to meet
the Paris climate goal of restricting global warming to 1.5°C. But by my
calculation, it will cost society about US$8.7 trillion a year in
climate-related damage if we don’t spend that money.
When this is the reality, you have to assume common sense will still prevail.
If so, one of the implications is we’re heading for a future in which most
transport will be electric. Again, this is unarguably the best way forward.
The average well-to-wheel efficiency of electric vehicles (EVs) is about 80%,
which refers to the proportion of the energy released from the battery that
actually turns the wheels. By the same measure, internal combustion vehicles
are only 20% efficient. EVs are, in fact, cleaner even when they are powered by
electricity from fossil fuels.
If EVs are going to dominate transportation, that implies a huge change in the
world fleet of vehicles in the years ahead. Notwithstanding their enormous
growth, only 14% of all new car sales are currently electric, while shipping
and especially aviation are considerably further behind.
This coming shift has serious consequences for oil prices, since about
two-thirds of world oil is used for transportation (most of it in road
vehicles). "
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
