<
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/jul/10/ai-datacentres-to-strain-australias-energy-supply-spike-prices-without-change-expert-says>
"Soaring electricity demand from datacentres could strain supplies and
contribute to much higher prices unless tech firms agree to act like aluminium
smelters that can power up or down to support the grid, an energy analyst says.
The demand, fuelled in part by the growth of energy-hungry artificial
intelligence services, could require between 3.3 and 5 gigawatts of additional
capacity by 2030, or about 15% of total load, according to Tom Allen, an
analyst with investment bank UBS.
“We think that current government forecasts are significantly underestimating
the load growth in demand,” Allen said.
Datacentres now account for almost a quarter of large industrial power demand
in Australia. UBS forecasts that load will increase by 16% a year out to 2030.
Evening peak demand could see wholesale power price spreads as much as 70%
higher by 2030. Price spreads between 3.30pm and 8.30pm have averaged $312 per
megawatt-hour so far this year in the national energy market, and are projected
to reach $525/MWh by the end of the decade, UBS estimates.
The Australian Energy Market Operator had so far largely missed the rise of
datacentre demand in its forecasts, including in last month’s release of its
biennial integrated system plan (ISP). The next iteration of the ISP, though,
“will likely reflect stronger load growth from this emerging and quite
significant customer cohort,” Allen predicted.
Australia’s energy sector is facing challenges on multiple fronts as
authorities try to manage the exit of coal-fired power plants and the rise of
relatively low-cost renewable energy sources such as solar and wind.
Gas shortfalls are an increasing possibility in southern states, such as
Victoria, even as the nation exports most of its gas output. The need for more
storage has also been demonstrated lately as calm conditions have cut wind
power output and lifted coal burning.
Electricity demand is also beginning to increase again in part because of the
spread of electric vehicles but also datacentre expansions. A report by the
International Energy Agency earlier this year predicted such centres consumed
460 terawatt-hours of power in 2022, a load that could more than double to
1000TWh by 2026.
Dylan McConnell, an energy expert from the University of NSW, said the prospect
of rising demand from datacentres was a “bit concerning and surprising” and
hadn’t been fully captured by traditional forecasts."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
