<
https://theconversation.com/ukraine-is-losing-the-war-and-the-west-faces-a-stark-choice-help-now-or-face-a-resurgent-and-aggressive-russia-227875>
"Ukraine is now experiencing a level of existential threat comparable only to
the situation immediately after the full-scale Russian invasion in February
2022. But in contrast to then, improvements are unlikely – at least not soon.
Not only have conditions along the frontline significantly worsened, according
to the Ukrainian commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrsky, but the very possibility
of a Ukrainian defeat is now discussed in public by people like the former
commander of the UK’s Joint Forces Command, General Sir Richard Barrons.
Barrons told the BBC on April 13 that Ukraine could lose the war in 2024
“because Ukraine may come to feel it can’t win … And when it gets to that
point, why will people want to fight and die any longer, just to defend the
indefensible?”
This may be his way of trying to push the west to provide more military aid to
Ukraine faster. Yet the fact that the Nato secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg,
publicly accepts that to end the war Ukraine will have to negotiate with Russia
and decide “what kind of compromises they’re willing to do” is a clear
indication that things are not going well for Ukraine.
There are several reasons for what appears to be an increasingly defeatist
narrative. First is the worsening situation at the front where Ukraine lacks
both manpower and equipment and ammunition to hold the line against Russia.
This will not change any time soon. The new Ukrainian mobilisation law has only
just been approved. It will take time to train, deploy and integrate new troops
at the front.
At the same time, Russia’s economy has been resilient to western sanctions and
seen growth driven by the war. On top of deliveries from Iran and North Korea
dual-use technology, including electrical components and machine tools for arms
manufacture, has been supplied by China.
Moscow has also managed to produce a lot of its own equipment and ammunition.
Much of this is being made in facilities beyond the reach of Ukrainian weapons.
This is not to say that all is well with Russian resupplies, but they are
superior to what Ukraine can manage on its own in the absence of western
support."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
