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https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/17/climate-crisis-average-world-incomes-to-drop-by-nearly-a-fifth-by-2050>
"The climate crisis will mean that average incomes will fall by almost a fifth
within the next 26 years compared with what they would have been if there was
no such crisis, according to a study that predicts the costs of damage will be
six times higher than the price of limiting global heating to 2C.
Rising temperatures, heavier rainfall and more frequent and intense extreme
weather are projected to cause $38tn (£30tn) of destruction each year by
mid-century, according to the research, which is the most comprehensive
analysis of its type ever undertaken, and whose findings are published in the
journal
Nature.
The hefty toll – which is far higher than previous estimates – is already
locked into the world economy over the coming decades as a result of the
enormous emissions that have been pumped into the atmosphere through the
burning of gas, oil, coal and trees.
This will inflict crippling losses on almost every country, with a
disproportionately severe impact on those least responsible for climate
disruption, further worsening inequality.
The paper says the permanent average loss of income worldwide will be 19% by
2049, in comparison to a baseline without the impacts of climate breakdown. In
the United States and Europe the reduction will be about 11%, while in Africa
and south Asia it will be 22%, with some individual countries much higher than
this.
“It’s devastating,” said Leonie Wenz, a scientist at the Potsdam Institute for
Climate Impact Research and one of the authors of the study. “I am used to my
work not having a nice societal outcome, but I was surprised by how big the
damages were. The inequality dimension was really shocking.”
The study also looked at the second half of this century, where human actions
now can still make a big difference. If business as usual continues, the
authors projected average income losses of more than 60% by 2100. But if
emissions fall to net zero by mid century, income declines will stabilise by
mid century at about 20%.
The economic hit predicted by the paper is more than twice as high as any
previous analysis.
Behind that difference is a more sophisticated methodology. While most previous
studies considered only damages related to rising temperatures at a national
level, the new paper also incorporated rainfall and extreme weather impacts
using 40 years of data from 1,600 subnational regions. This is important
because weather is a local rather than national phenomenon. The study also
considered how impacts tend to persist over months and years, rather than being
only a short-term hit."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
