https://www.eurasiagroup.net/issues/top-risks-2024
"Three wars will dominate world affairs: Russia vs. Ukraine, now in its third
year; Israel vs. Hamas, now in its third month; and the United States vs.
itself, ready to kick off at any moment.
Russia-Ukraine … is getting worse. Ukraine now stands to lose significant
international interest and support. For the United States in particular, it's
become a distant second (and increasingly third or lower) policy priority.
Despite hundreds of thousands of casualties, millions of displaced people, and
a murderous hatred for the Russian regime shared by nearly every Ukrainian that
will define the national identity of tens of millions for decades. Which is
leading to more desperation on the part of the Ukrainian government, while
Vladimir Putin's Russia remains fully isolated from the West. The conflict is
more likely to escalate, and Ukraine is on a path to being partitioned.
Israel-Hamas … is getting worse. There's no obvious way to end the fighting,
and whatever the military outcome, a dramatic increase in radicalization is
guaranteed. Of Israeli Jews, feeling themselves globally isolated and even
hated after facing the worst violence against them since the Holocaust. Of
Palestinians, facing what they consider a genocide, with no opportunities for
peace and no prospects of escape. Deep political divisions over the conflict
run throughout the Middle East and across over one billion people in the
broader Muslim world, not to mention in the United States and Europe.
And then there's the biggest challenge in 2024 … the
United States versus
itself. Fully one-third of the global population will go to the polls this
year, but an unprecedentedly dysfunctional US election will be by far the most
consequential for the world's security, stability, and economic outlook. The
outcome will affect the fate of 8 billion people, and only 160 million
Americans will have a say in it, with the winner to be decided by just tens of
thousands of voters in a handful of swing states. The losing side—whether
Democrats or Republicans—will consider the outcome illegitimate and be
unprepared to accept it. The world's most powerful country faces critical
challenges to its core political institutions: free and fair elections, the
peaceful transfer of power, and the checks and balances provided by the
separation of powers. The political state of the union … is troubled indeed.
None of these three conflicts have adequate guardrails preventing them from
getting worse. None have responsible leaders willing and able to fix, or at
least clean up, the mess. Indeed, these leaders see their opponents (and their
opponents' supporters) as principal adversaries—“enemies of the people”—and are
willing to use extralegal measures to ensure victory. Most problematically,
none of the belligerents agree on what they're fighting over."
Via Wayne Radinsky.
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
