<
https://climateanalytics.org/publications/when-will-global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-peak>
"Reaching peak global greenhouse gas emissions – the point at which emissions
stop growing and start falling – will be a crucial inflection point for the
world. Instead of speeding in the wrong direction, we could finally say we’re
making the turn towards our collective climate goals.
The IPCC says peaking before 2025 is a critical step to keep the 1.5°C limit
within reach. With emissions set to rise in 2023, this leaves limited time to
act. To assess if we can meet this milestone, we look at when global emissions
might peak, as well as what we can do to get there in time.
In this report, we find there is a 70% chance that emissions start falling in
2024 if current clean technology growth trends continue and some progress is
made to cut non-CO2 emissions. This would make 2023 the year of peak emissions
– meeting the IPCC deadline.
The continued explosive growth of wind and solar in particular would push
fossil fuels out of the power sector, leading to peak coal in 2023 and peak gas
in 2024. Meanwhile, continued growth in electric vehicles could lead to peak
oil in 2025.
Our analysis looks at three scenarios. The first (baseline), combines the IEA’s
current policy projection – which shows global fossil CO2 emissions peaking
this year – with an assumption that other gases continue growing at current
rates. In this scenario, global greenhouse gas emissions enter a long-term
plateau, even if fossil CO2 emissions peak.
Our second scenario (low effort) continues to use the IEA’s projection for
fossil CO2 but assumes internationally agreed targets to reduce
hydrofluorocarbons are met, and low-cost, no-regrets action is taken to cut
other non-CO2 emissions over the coming years. In this scenario, emissions peak
in 2025, narrowly missing the IPCC’s ‘before’ 2025 milestone.
Our third scenario, and focus of this report, (continued acceleration) looks at
what happens if current growth trends in wind, solar and electric vehicles seen
at the regional and national level are maintained – with country-level analyses
conducted for China, the US, the EU, India and Brazil. It also assumes
signatories to the Global Methane Pledge make adequate progress towards
achieving the collective target.
This is the only scenario which meets the IPCC milestone, peaking in 2023 with
a high confidence (70%) when accounting for year-to-year emissions
fluctuations.
IEA current policy projections tend to be conservative when compared to actual
wind and solar growth data. To adjust for this, the continued acceleration
scenario follows an S-curve which emulates the explosive growth of maturing
technologies. This shows a faster decline in CO2 emissions compared to the
IEA’s scenario and results in around 2.5 times more renewable capacity in 2030
than today."
Via
Future Crunch:
<
https://futurecrunch.com/good-news-child-nutrition-human-rights-bhutan-ocean-png/>
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
