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https://freedium.cfd/https://medium.com/the-future-is-electric/wind-solar-dominate-while-other-technologies-are-rounding-errors-in-end-state-projection-for-f3868040f658>
"This week I had the opportunity again to speak truth to money, a key focus of
mine. We need trillions invested the right way quickly in order to get
ourselves out of the climate mess we've created. My efforts over the past 15
years to gain sufficient wisdom to create projections of what the future will
look like means that organizations like Jefferies Group, now the USA's
fifth-largest investment bank, engage me to speak with groups of their clients.
As with the International Energy Agency's (IEA) recent report and the Global
Energy Interconnection Development & Cooperation Organization (GEIDCO), a
China-created international organization created to focus on big grids,
Jefferies gets that grid investment has been flat for years. Any buffer created
by technical innovations like LEDs has been consumed and major generation and
storage projects are waiting in long regulatory queues at present. That's part
of the reason Jefferies had me give an earlier talk and Q&A on why
electrification and why the grid.
This talk covered every material form of electrical generation, past and
present, my rough expectation of how much of the world's energy would be
provided by it in 2060 or 2080, and the implications for investments in wiring
the world together.
As I reiterated in my introductory remarks, electricity is the future of all
energy. It's vastly more efficient than molecules for energy and so will be
much more economically viable in the future. Any pathway for energy that has to
flow through created molecules like green hydrogen or synthetic fuels will be
more expensive than alternatives that can electrify through batteries or grid
ties. All ground transportation and all heat will be electric. And direct use
of electricity has far lower negative externalities than any other option as
well, so lower human health and environmental impacts too. We won't need nearly
as much raw energy due to the efficiency, with perhaps 50% of the USA's current
energy inputs being surplus to requirements when electricity comes mostly from
wind and sun.
But that's still a lot of electricity. It's about six times what the USA
generates from low-carbon forms of electrical generation today, which is a very
achievable growth amount in a couple of decades. And there are very big demand
centers like cities and heavy industry that won't be able to generate nearly
enough electricity locally with solar to make much of a dent in demand. So
building wind and solar where the wind and sun are strong and transmitting that
electricity to centers of demand will be important. More transmission and
beefier distribution grids are required.
So let's start through the list of forms of generation and my outlook. The
general organizing principle was legacy technologies, newer technologies that
will dominate and some rounding error technologies for completeness, with some
implications at the end."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
