Coal Declines Amid Solar Boom in South Africa, in Five Charts

Sun, 31 Dec 2023 12:25:17 +1100

Andrew Pam <xanni [at] glasswings.com.au>

Andrew Pam
<https://about.bnef.com/blog/coal-declines-amid-solar-boom-in-south-africa-in-five-charts/>

"South Africa’s coal-heavy power system will transform rapidly even in an
economics-led scenario, new BNEF modelling finds. The country needs an average
of $5.9 billion of investment in power generation per year from 2021 to 2040,
to deliver on the cheapest capacity mix to replace its retiring coal fleet.

Small-scale solar installations are booming in South Africa amid rolling power
cuts and regulatory changes. Export data for solar products from China surged
in 2023, with $770 million directed to South Africa in the first half alone.

Despite a slowdown in exports since July, BNEF expects over 3.5 gigawatts of
residential and commercial solar to be added annually from 2023 to at least
2025, or until the electricity supply crisis ends.

The deployment of 36 gigawatts of new wind and solar by 2030, under
BloombergNEF’s economics-led scenario, means that renewables grow to supply
over a third of South Africa’s power mix. This lowers demand for coal
generation by 28% by 2030 from 2021 levels, and cuts emissions produced by the
coal-heavy grid by almost a third.

During the 2030s, new-build solar becomes cheaper than running even the most
efficient coal units, driving installations further. Renewables, primarily wind
and solar, supply two thirds of South Africa’s electricity mix by 2040."

Via Future Crunch:
<https://futurecrunch.com/good-news-domestic-violence-australia-malaria-rwanda-whales-dominica/>

Cheers,
       *** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net               Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/                 Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/            Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/               Manager, Serious Cybernetics

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