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https://freedium.cfd/https://medium.com/starts-with-a-bang/will-musks-starlink-satellites-lead-to-kessler-syndrome-b8becc3edf70>
"Over the course of the 2020s and 2030s, the night sky and the volume of space
that surrounds the Earth are both poised to become very different than they've
been for all of human history. As of 2019, all of humanity had launched an
estimated total of between 8,000 and 9,000 satellites, where approximately
2,000 of them were still active back then, mostly in low-Earth orbit. As many
companies now scramble to provide worldwide 5G coverage from space — led most
prominently by Elon Musk's and SpaceX's Starlink, which has by far the most
satellites — humanity is now beginning to enter the era of satellite
mega-constellations.
As of today in 2023, however, there are nearly 9000 active satellites, with
active Starlinks making up the overwhelming majority of them: 4755 out of the
8647 active satellites, or 55% of them. While media coverage has largely
focused on only one detrimental effect so far — the damage that these
satellites have already caused and are still causing to astronomy — there's a
second consequence that could be even more disastrous over the long-term:
Kessler syndrome. With tens or even hundreds of thousands of satellites in
orbit, a single collision could trigger a chain reaction. With the realities of
solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and other forms of space weather, the era
of mega-constellations may usher in a new type of natural disaster, making
Earth's orbit impassable to all future space-based missions.
The idea of Kessler syndrome is a simple one: if there are too many satellites
around Earth, an unfortunate collision between any two of them could create
enough debris that another collision becomes inevitable. Although there is not
widespread agreement on when that point will be reached, it's widely recognized
that greater numbers of larger satellites greatly increases this risk. With
Starlink alone proposing a total of 42,000 satellites in three different
orbital shells and many other companies working on following suit, the danger
of Kessler syndrome is poised to increase by orders of magnitude over the
current decade: the 2020s."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
