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https://www.sciencealert.com/viral-epidemics-could-kill-12-times-as-many-people-by-2050-heres-why>
"Pathogens once contained in isolated animal populations have sparked deadly
epidemics at an exponential rate over the past half a century, according to a
new study, setting a trend that is likely to only worsen in coming years.
According to an analysis of historical data by biotech company Ginkgo Bioworks,
outbreaks reported from a selection of four devastating viruses with animal
hosts rose by nearly 5 percent a year between 1963 and 2019, with deaths
jumping annually by an astonishing 8.7 percent.
At that rate, the researchers predict, we could expect the total number of
fatalities from these four diseases alone to be at least 12 times greater in
2050 than records showed for 2020.
Most modern viral epidemics have their origins in populations of wild or
domestic animals that harbor pathogens with little to no ill effect themselves,
passing them on silently from generation to generation.
Should the virus evolve a talent for breaking into a human body, any chance
meeting between us and the animal host presents an opportunity for a zoonotic
spillover event – an invasion of pathogenic pioneers wreaking havoc as they
launch themselves into our population.
Human activity has dramatically increased the likelihood of those initial
encounters, such as by pushing deeper into wild habitats or by forcing
relocation of populations through widespread habitat loss and climate change.
While this much is understood, little is known about the actual frequency of
zoonotic spillovers over time, making long-term assessments a challenge.
With access to an extensive database on infectious disease outbreaks, Ginkgo
Bioworks was in a prime position to examine the number and severity of zoonotic
outbreaks reported by the World Health Organization in recent history.
Excluding the recent COVID-19 pandemic (on account of its blinding devastation)
as well as potentially endemic diseases that may have established themselves in
human populations, the researchers settled on a handful of animal-borne
viruses; – SARS coronavirus 1, filoviruses such as Ebola, Machupo virus (which
causes Bolivian hemorrhagic fever), and Nipah virus.
The researchers were left with 75 events that spilled over into human
populations from wild hosts in 24 countries. Tracking their emergence and using
death count as a guide to each outbreak's severity, filoviruses were by far the
deadliest, with more than 15,700 deaths in the 40 outbreaks reported over the
period studied."
Via Rixty Dixet.
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
