https://phys.org/news/2023-10-early-earth-breaching-key-threshold.html
'In a little more than five years—sometime in early 2029—the world will likely
be unable to stay below the internationally agreed temperature limit for global
warming if it continues to burn fossil fuels at its current rate, a new study
says.
The study moves three years closer the date when the world will eventually hit
a critical climate threshold, which is an increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7
degrees Fahrenheit) since the 1800s.
Beyond that temperature increase, the risks of catastrophes increase, as the
world will likely lose most of its coral reefs, a key ice sheet could kick into
irreversible melt, and water shortages, heat waves and death from extreme
weather dramatically increase, according to an earlier United Nations
scientific report.
Hitting that threshold will happen sooner than initially calculated because the
world has made progress in cleaning up a different type of air pollution—tiny
smoky particles called aerosols. Aerosols slightly cool the planet and mask the
effects of burning coal, oil and natural gas, the study's lead author said. Put
another way, while cleaning up aerosol pollution is a good thing, that success
means slightly faster rises in temperatures.
The study in Monday's journal
Nature Climate Change calculates what's
referred to as the remaining "carbon budget," which is how much fossil fuels
the world can burn and still have a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5
degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times. That is the threshold set by the
2015 Paris agreement.
The last 10 years are already on average 1.14 degrees Celsius (2.05 degrees
Fahrenheit) hotter than the 19th century. Last year was 1.26 degrees Celsius
(2.27 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer and this year is likely to blow past that,
according to scientists.'
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
