<
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/30/climate-crisis-carbon-emissions-budget>
"The carbon budget remaining to limit the climate crisis to 1.5C of global
heating is now “tiny”, according to an analysis, sending a “dire” message about
the adequacy of climate action.
The carbon budget is the maximum amount of carbon emissions that can be
released while restricting global temperature rise to the limits of the Paris
agreement. The new figure is half the size of the budget estimated in 2020 and
would be exhausted in six years at current levels of emissions.
Temperature records have been obliterated in 2023, with extreme weather
supercharged by global heating hitting lives and livelihoods across the world.
At the imminent UN Cop28 climate summit in the United Arab Emirates there are
likely to be disputes over calls for a phaseout of fossil fuels.
The analysis found the carbon budget remaining for a 50% chance of keeping
global temperature rise below 1.5C is about 250bn tonnes. Global emissions are
expected to reach a record high this year of about 40bn tonnes. To retain the
50% chance of a 1.5C limit, emissions would have to plunge to net zero by 2034,
far faster than even the most radical scenarios.
The current UN ambition is to cut emissions by half by 2030 and reach net zero
by 2050, although existing policies are far from delivering this ambition. If
it was achieved, however, it would mean only about a 40% chance of staying
below 1.5C, the scientists said, so breaking the limit would be more likely
than not.
But, they warned, every 10th of a degree of extra heat caused more human
suffering and therefore keeping as close as possible to 1.5C was crucial.
The new carbon budget estimate is the most recent and comprehensive analysis to
date. The main reasons the budget has shrunk so markedly since 2020 are the
continued high emissions from human activities and a better understanding of
how reducing air pollution increases heating by blocking less sunlight."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
