https://snyder.substack.com/p/the-state-of-the-war
"Greetings from Kyiv. I have spent the last several days in Ukraine, here in
the capital, and in the southerly regions of Odesa, Mykolaïv, and Kherson,
trying to get a sense of the state of the war. I will write more about the
experience, but I thought that it might be a good time to share my most general
sense.
It is a crucial moment, partly because of what is happening, and partly because
of our own sense of time. One and a half years is an awkward period for us. We
might like to think that it can be brought to a rapid conclusion, with this or
that offensive or weapon. When the war does not quickly end, we jump to the
idea that it is a “stalemate,” which is a situation that lasts forever. This
is false, and serves as a kind of excuse not to figure out what is going on.
This is a war that can be won, but only if we are patient enough to see the
outlines and the opportunities.
Russia’s gains in this invasion were made almost entirely during its first few
weeks, in February and March 2022. Those gains were largely possible thanks to
the fact that Russia had seized the Crimean Peninsula in its earlier invasion
of Ukraine in 2014. Over the course of 2022, Ukraine won the battles of Kyiv,
Kharkiv, and Kherson, and took back about half of the territory Russia gained.
In the first half of 2023, Russia undertook an offensive that gained almost
nothing but the city of Bakhmut. In the second half of this year Ukraine has
undertaken a counter-offensive which has taken far more territory than did the
Russian offensive, but which has not (yet) changed the overall strategic
position (but could). In Russia, a military coup was attempted by Yevgeny
Prigozhin, the leader of the mercenary group that took Bakhmut. He and Putin
made a deal, after which Putin killed him. In a related development, Sergei
Surovikin, probably the most capable Russian general, has been relieved of his
command. Russia now has no meaningful offensive potential. Its strategy is to
continue terror against civilians until Ukrainians can endure no longer. This,
judging from my experience anyway, is not a tenable approach. On the other
hand, Russia has had time to extensively fortify a long long of defense in the
east and south, and to prepare for Ukrainian offensives. This makes Ukrainian
offensives very difficult."
Via Joerg Fliege and Susan ****
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
