<
https://theconversation.com/flood-protection-based-on-historical-records-is-flawed-we-need-a-risk-model-fit-for-climate-change-212454>
"Despite countries pouring billions of dollars into “protecting” communities,
flood-related disasters are becoming more frequent and are projected to become
even more severe as the climate crisis worsens.
In fact, many areas that flooded during recent extreme weather events, from
Auckland to Henan in China, were deemed to be relatively safe. This should
raise an obvious question: to what extent is our existing approach fit for
purpose in a changing climate?
Traditionally, managing flooding has relied heavily on building higher levees
or increasing the capacity of drainage systems. But this can be a mixed
blessing. While they contain water most of the time, when levees or drains
exceed their original design capacity, we experience damaging floods.
These technical solutions have tended to operate on a flawed assumption that
future flooding can be reliably predicted based on decades of historical flood
data. They also create the “levee effect” – a false sense of security that
encourages development in still risk-prone areas.
As climate change brings unpredictable rainfall patterns and higher
intensities, these historic design assumptions are falling well short of the
realities. And it means there remains a “residual risk”, even when
infrastructure improvements have been made or planned for."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
