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"I’ve been publishing assessments of the poor performance of nuclear compared
to wind and solar in China for years (2014, 2019, 2021, 2022). My premise nine
years ago was a first principles assertion with limited empirical results that
wind and solar would radically outstrip nuclear in China. Why? Modularity
reducing long-tailed risks, as Professor Bent Flyvbjerg, global expert and go
to person for megaprojects, puts it in his new book
How Big Things Get Done,
where he includes my assessment of the natural experiment.
Subsequent assessments found that was true. Every year, the combination of wind
and solar, and usually both individually, outstripped new nuclear generation,
both in raw nameplate capacity and in additional TWh of annual generation. But
as Professor Mark Z. Jacobson likes to remind us, it’s not WS, it’s WWS, that
is wind, water, and solar. And so, today I spent a bit of time looking at
hydroelectric generation capacity additions around the world since 2000, which
turned out to be almost entirely in China. Of the 132.5 GW of new big
hydroelectric projects connected to the grid in the world since 2000, 113 GW
were in China. Unsurprising to anyone paying the slightest attention, but
still, big numbers.
But what does that mean when added to wind and solar and compared to nuclear,
leveraging the 2010 to 2022 data set I already had?"
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
