"I have recently presented research findings from my modelling of WA’s South
West Interconnected System (SWIS) at the World Renewable Energy Congress at
Murdoch University. This is the latest analysis using my high level system
dynamics model of the SWIS, the first of which featured in RenewEconomy way
back in 2014.
In that report I set out the results of modelling the take-up of private
behind-the-meter (BTM) solar PV based on savings to customers arising from
reducing costs of PV.
Each year, AEMO produces a projection of private solar as a component of their
Statement of Opportunities (SOO) report. I have been tracking that since 2014,
noting that each year they have had to re-appraise based on actual take-up.
As the figure below illustrates, they continually fail to accurately predict
both the dynamics (i.e. exponential growth) and the end point (i.e. when the
market is saturated and capacity levels off).
Why is this important? Planning for a transition to renewables requires
projections of network demand. If you continue to underestimate the rise of
private generation you think you have more time to accommodate the necessary
changes than you actually do.
My recent modelling indicates that through a combination of residential and
commercial take-up of BTM solar PV with precinct scale microgrids (such as this
project in which I was involved), the capacity of private solar will continue
to grow rapidly, potentially reaching 7,000 MW by 2030.
Private battery storage lags, but as capital costs decrease, the business case
improves and capacity could reach 4,500 MWh by 2030."
*** Xanni ***
Chief Scientist, Xanadu
Partner, Glass Wings
Manager, Serious Cybernetics