China could face a catastrophic COVID surge as it lifts restrictions – here’s how it might play out

Wed, 28 Dec 2022 20:27:21 +1100

Andrew Pam <xanni [at] glasswings.com.au>

Andrew Pam
<https://theconversation.com/china-could-face-a-catastrophic-covid-surge-as-it-lifts-restrictions-heres-how-it-might-play-out-195525>

"China is the only major country which, until now, has continued to enforce a
zero-COVID strategy. Other countries, including Australia, New Zealand and
Singapore, also sought to eliminate COVID entirely earlier in the pandemic. But
all eventually abandoned this approach because of the mounting social and
economic costs and the realisation that local elimination of COVID was largely
futile and only transient.

China’s strategy, which has relied on measures including mass testing,
shutdowns of entire cities and provinces, and quarantining anyone who may have
been exposed to the virus, has increasingly become untenable. The harsh and
often arbitrary enforcement of zero COVID has fuelled growing resentment among
the population, culminating in large public protests.

The restrictions have also shown their limits in the face of omicron. This
variant has a shorter incubation period than previous COVID lineages, and
largely bypasses protection against infection conferred by the original
vaccines.

It’s logical that Chinese authorities are now moving to ease restrictions.
However, the transition out of zero COVID has been painful for any country
that’s done it. And China faces some unique challenges in making this shift."

Cheers,
       *** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net               Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/                 Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/            Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/               Manager, Serious Cybernetics

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