https://theconversation.com/could-russia-collapse-193013
"Among the many questions asked about Russia’s disastrous war against Ukraine,
one of them is posed only very rarely: can Russia survive what seems
increasingly likely to be a humiliating defeat at the hands of its smaller
neighbour?
On the face of it, the prospect seems almost absurd. Vladimir Putin may have
been weakened by a trio of crucial miscalculations – about Russian military
strength, Ukrainian resolve, and Western unity – but there’s no evidence yet
that he’s on the verge of losing his grip on power, much less the Russian state
imploding.
There have been few significant demonstrations on the streets to protest
against the war, against Putin’s leadership, or even against the mobilisation
of conscripts. Those with the wherewithal to leave Russia for fear of getting
drafted have already fled. And while there are likely to be significant
economic shocks as Western sanctions begin to bite, some creative fiscal
management by Moscow has dampened their impact so far.
Indeed, by rattling the nuclear sabre ever louder amid blatant false flags
about Ukrainian “dirty bombs”, the image Putin seeks to project is one of
strength, not fragility.
Cognitive biases among Western commentators can also play a role when making
judgements about authoritarian states like Russia, leading us to see weakness
when in fact it is absent. After all, nobody seriously thought the United
States would disintegrate after its ignominious withdrawal from Vietnam, or
Iraq, or Afghanistan for that matter.
But there are three good reasons why we should not discount the possibility
that defeat in Ukraine might make the Kremlin’s edifice crumble, leaving Russia
difficult to govern in its entirety, or at least its present form."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
